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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-16T23:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32005/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.9 flare from AR 3744 (approx. N18W11) with peak time 2024-07-16T22:06Z. EUV wave, opening field lines, and dimming are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is not visible in STEREO A EUV imagery due to a data gap from 2024-07-16T13:35Z to 23:35Z. While there is some field line opening associated with another M-class flare shortly beforehand, M1.6 with peak time 2024-07-16T21:24Z, the broad area of dimming is more clearly associated with this later M1.9 flare. No clear CME arrival signature seen in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-19T13:16Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32007/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=668.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2024-07-17T03:51Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-19T13:16Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =19.0 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-20T21:04Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-18T06:51Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-19T08:58Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 47.28 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-07-17T13:59Z

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